Iowa Governor's Race Analysis
Iowa’s shift to the GOP looks firm, but an open 2026 governor’s race, a popular Democratic challenger, and rural economic pressures could suggest a more competitive contest.
On November 3rd, 2026, the Iowa governor’s race is going to be held. Today, Iowa is considered a solidly red state, however it has had a history of voting blue in the past. In this article, which is the first article of my blog Explained, I will be explaining the Iowa governor’s race, the context around it, who the candidates are, and overall my prediction for this election.
To start, I will begin by explaining Iowa’s voting trends. Before 2016, Iowa was considered a swing state. For example, Barack Obama won Iowa in 2008 and 2012. Since 2016, Iowa sharply shifted to the right, voting for Donald Trump in 2016, 2020, and 2024. The reason for Iowa’s shift to the right is debated, however common reasons include loss of manufacturing and union jobs, hurt support for Democrats, Democratic organizational weakness and messaging challenges, and more.
To this end, in the Iowa governor’s race, Kim Reynolds, the incumbent Governor, won in 2018 and 2022. Kim Reynolds’s victory in 2018 was narrow, a little less than 3 points. She improved her margin in 2022, in which Republicans made gains in many states. However, Kim Reynolds is today considered the most unpopular Governor in America, with polls showing 49% of Iowans disapproving of her leadership. Kim Reynolds ultimately decided not to run for reelection in 2026, which may boost Republicans chances in the state.
On the Republican side, there are currently a wide-range of candidates. However, the current favorite to secure the nomination is Randy Feenstra, the US Representative for Iowa’s 4th district. Randy Feenstra is popular within his district, winning 67% of the vote in the 2024 cycle. Randy Feenstra has endorsements from Joni Ernst, the incumbent US Senator and Chris Cournoyer, the incumbent Lieutenant Governor. However, while Feenstra is popular within his deep-red district, his statewide appeal remains untested. On the Democratic side, State Auditor Rob Sand is running. Rob Sand is a strong candidate, being extremely popular within Iowa and remaining the only Democrat to be elected to statewide office in the 2022 Iowa elections. Rob Sand is currently not facing major opposition, only facing two minor primary challengers.
One poll has been conducted so far by Z to A Research. It shows Rob Sand leading with 45% of the vote compared to Randy Feenstra with 43%. 12% of voters remain undecided. On Polymarket, the Republicans are considered the favorites to win this election, with a 56% odds at winning compared to Democrats’s 44. On Kalshi, Republicans have a 60% odds of winning compared to Democrats at 42%. Democrats have also won a special election in August, a seat which was formally held by a Republican, which broke the GOP supermajority in the Iowa State Senate. Tariffs are also hitting many agriculture sectors in Iowa, which may convince people that traditionally voted Republican to vote Democratic. Alongside the blue wave expected for 2026 and Rob Sand’s personal popularity, there is reason to suspect that Democrats may have a fighting chance in the Iowa governor’s race.
At this stage, the fundamentals still favor Republicans, but the combination of an open seat, a uniquely strong Democratic nominee, and growing economic dissatisfaction in rural Iowa makes this race more competitive than recent statewide elections. If Democrats are willing to invest early and heavily, Iowa may test its new red-state reputation in 2026.